MOTH-001

GEN 001WAITING

LIVE DATAT+ 14:47:53

EnvironmentBTC / USD · 60m barsKraken public OHLC (REST, no key)Bars 735 / 73503 Sept 2026 → 04/10 02:00 UTCUpstream fetch pendingRun RPL-XBTUSD-60m-MUSCUIMC

Paper portfolio · ◦ WAIT

Equity10,101.86

Return+1.02%

Cash10,102

Positionflat

Realised101.86

Unrealised—

Fees paid101.36

Fills24

Max drawdown-3.28%

Time held25%

60m

Decision journal

03/10 17:00WAITMomentum 0.43% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

03/10 05:00WAITMomentum -0.15% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

02/10 17:00WAITMomentum -1.40% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

02/10 16:00EXITMomentum faded to -1.72%, below the -0.40% exit line.

02/10 11:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.84% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 1.94%.

01/10 23:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.15% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 0.10%.

01/10 20:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.30% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.19%.

01/10 19:00ENTERMomentum 1.51% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 84275 above SMA24 83900.

01/10 13:00WAITMomentum 0.55% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

01/10 01:00WAITMomentum -1.36% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

01/10 00:00EXITMomentum faded to -2.13%, below the -0.40% exit line.

30/09 13:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.42% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.92%.

30/09 12:00ENTERMomentum 2.21% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 83657 above SMA24 83516.

30/09 06:00WAITMomentum -0.73% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

29/09 18:00WAITMomentum -0.43% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

29/09 17:00EXITMomentum faded to -0.41%, below the -0.40% exit line.

29/09 10:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.58% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.41%.

29/09 09:00ENTERMomentum 1.26% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 83567 above SMA24 83449.

29/09 07:00WAITMomentum 0.72% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

28/09 19:00WAITMomentum 0.51% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

28/09 07:00WAITMomentum -2.11% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

27/09 19:00WAITMomentum -0.06% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

27/09 07:00WAITMomentum 0.90% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

26/09 19:00WAITMomentum -0.11% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

26/09 07:00WAITMomentum 0.11% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

25/09 19:00WAITMomentum -0.02% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

25/09 07:00WAITMomentum -0.43% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

25/09 06:00EXITMomentum faded to -0.50%, below the -0.40% exit line.

25/09 02:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.65% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.29%.

25/09 00:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.18% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 0.14%.

24/09 22:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.91% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.22%.

24/09 21:00ENTERMomentum 1.29% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 84266 above SMA24 84081.

24/09 09:00WAITMomentum -1.38% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

23/09 21:00WAITMomentum -1.67% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

23/09 09:00WAITMomentum -0.40% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

23/09 08:00EXITMomentum faded to -0.44%, below the -0.40% exit line.

23/09 05:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum -0.10% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.26%.

23/09 04:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.82% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 0.52%.

22/09 18:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.29% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.29%.

22/09 17:00ENTERMomentum 1.39% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 86229 above SMA24 86074.

Current decisionClosed bar → next open

Three creatures. One market. Who adapts?

WAIT03/10 17:00 UTC · bar 725

Momentum 0.43% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

Sma Fast84,821

Sma Slow84,630

Momentum0.43%

Entry Threshold1.20%

Our specimensThree minds. One market.

Performance (simulation)

MOTH+1.02%MOSS-1.98%ECHO-1.76%Buy & hold+6.00%Chance+0.54%

Return since the start of the range · fees and slippage included

Evolution (lineage)MOTH

GEN 001Active

GEN 002Candidate

GEN 003Candidate

GEN 004Candidate

GEN 005Candidate

GEN 002 · Confirmation onlyNot separable from chance

Confirm Bars1 → 2

Recorded and waiting for its held-out test, which runs once this dataset has been replayed in full.

GEN 003 · Extension limit onlyUntested

Max Extensionno limit → 1.50%

Recorded and waiting for its held-out test, which runs once this dataset has been replayed in full.

GEN 004 · Leave while it is still risingUntested

Exit Threshold-0.40% → 0.20%

21 Sept 2026 → 03 Oct 2026	GEN 001	GEN 004
Return	-2.81%	-2.14%
Max drawdown	-3.98%	-3.42%
Fills	12	12

GEN 004 finished 0.67 points ahead of GEN 001 on this window. Both took the same number of fills. One window is not evidence that the change works; GEN 004 stays a candidate and nothing has been promoted.

GEN 005 · A trend filter that is not the signalUntested

Trend Slow24.00 → 60.00

21 Sept 2026 → 03 Oct 2026	GEN 001	GEN 005
Return	-2.81%	-2.54%
Max drawdown	-3.98%	-3.71%
Fills	12	10

GEN 005 finished 0.27 points ahead of GEN 001 on this window. It took 2 fewer fills. One window is not evidence that the change works; GEN 005 stays a candidate and nothing has been promoted.

Benchmark buy & hold +6.00% · 100% heldChance +0.54% · 34 fills · 52% heldSeed SPECIMEN-001Fee 0.10% · slippage 0.05% · max 50% of equity per positionSyncing

A world in motion.

MOTH-001

Three creatures. One market. Who adapts?